Moving averages, without the magic

A moving average is a summary of past prices. It does not predict the future; it smooths noise so that direction is easier to see.

Short averages react quickly and produce more false signals. Long averages react slowly and can remain useful as broad regime filters.

Crossovers are best treated as evidence, not certainty. Context from volatility, breadth, and the investor’s own horizon matters.

A robust test includes transaction costs, multiple market regimes, and an honest comparison with a simple buy-and-hold baseline.